Card Revenue (LTM)
$134M
▼ -11.0% LTM
Current Stores
~70
▼ from 146 peak
Instagram
94.7K
▲ +20.9% YoY
Synthesized from consumer panel data, card transaction data, and public sources
Salad & Go is mid-retrenchment. After aggressive expansion to 146 stores across 4 states (AZ, TX, OK, NV), the company closed all 73 Texas and Oklahoma locations in Sep 2025–Jan 2026 under new CEO Mike Tattersfield (ex-Krispy Kreme, appointed Apr 2025). The brand is now focused exclusively on its ~70 AZ/NV footprint. Founders Tony & Roushan Christofellis sold to PE firm Volt Investment Holdings in 2021 and have since publicly criticized the quality decline. Market intelligence from Apr 2024 indicates a $200M investment at $1B valuation (per JPM restaurant team call). Card revenue is $134M LTM but declining -11%. Retention is deteriorating in recent cohorts. The core Arizona business remains strong geographically (80% of Earnest panel sales), but Nevada (Las Vegas) is still very small at 2% of sales despite 39 months of operation.
Earnest Vela Panel · In-Store Transactions · ⚠️ Cumulative all-time data (not monthly/LTM) — markets have different operating histories
State-Level Sales Distribution
| State | Sales Share | Sales ($) | Txns | Months Active |
|---|
| Arizona | 79.7% | $5,843,817 | 540,368 | 71 |
| Texas | 16.7% | $1,227,848 | 112,039 | 59 |
| Nevada | 2.0% | $145,257 | 11,114 | 39 |
| Oklahoma | 1.4% | $106,095 | 9,289 | 39 |
Note: TX & OK exited Jan 2026. Remaining footprint is AZ + NV only.
AZ vs. NV — Key Comparisons
| Metric | Arizona | Nevada | AZ/NV Ratio |
|---|
| Cumulative Panel Sales ($) | $5.84M | $145K | 40.2x |
| Cumulative Transactions | 540,368 | 11,114 | 48.6x |
| Panel Sales / Month Active | $82.3K | $3.7K | 22.1x |
| Avg $/Txn | $10.81 | $13.07 | 0.83x |
| Months Active | 71 | 39 | 1.8x |
| Est. Store Count | ~60 | ~10 | 6.0x |
Takeaway: Normalizing for time, the AZ/NV gap narrows from 40x (cumulative) to 22x (per month) — but AZ still vastly outperforms. NV has higher avg ticket ($13.07 vs $10.81) but the market simply hasn't scaled despite 39 months of operation.
Top 15 Cities by Cumulative Earnest Panel Sales
⚠️ Cumulative all-time data — NOT monthly or LTM. Markets active for different durations (Phoenix: 71 months, Las Vegas: 39 months). See normalized table below.
Panel Sales Normalized by Months Active
Adjusts for different market entry dates — gives a cleaner read on relative run-rate by city
| City | State | Cumul. Sales | Months Active | Sales / Month | Avg Ticket |
|---|
| Phoenix | AZ | $1,663,842 | 71 | $23,434 | $10.64 |
| Gilbert | AZ | $674,243 | 71 | $9,496 | $10.70 |
| Mesa | AZ | $653,447 | 71 | $9,203 | $11.11 |
| Tempe | AZ | $534,035 | 69 | $7,740 | $9.87 |
| Tucson | AZ | $397,847 | 56 | $7,105 | $11.77 |
| Chandler | AZ | $440,436 | 71 | $6,203 | $10.70 |
| Scottsdale | AZ | $420,610 | 71 | $5,924 | $9.91 |
| Las Vegas 🏜️ | NV | $144,135 | 39 | $3,696 | $13.06 |
| Peoria | AZ | $213,719 | 58 | $3,685 | $11.87 |
| Fort Worth* | TX | $184,027 | 54 | $3,408 | $10.95 |
| Surprise | AZ | $239,081 | 71 | $3,368 | $12.15 |
| Glendale | AZ | $149,631 | 51 | $2,934 | $11.40 |
| Queen Creek | AZ | $196,674 | 71 | $2,770 | $10.80 |
| Dallas* | TX | $109,273 | 58 | $1,884 | $10.24 |
* Exited markets (TX closed Jan 2026). Key insight: On a normalized basis, Las Vegas ($3,696/mo) ranks 8th — ahead of Peoria, Surprise, Glendale, and Queen Creek in Arizona. It also outperforms both TX cities that were shut down. Vegas is small but not underperforming on a per-month basis relative to secondary AZ markets.
Quarterly cohorts · All channels · % of cohort transacting in period · ⚠️ National data only — Earnest does not support state/city-level retention
Geographic caveat: Earnest retention is computed nationally — there's no way to isolate Arizona or Las Vegas through the panel. However, since S&G closed all TX/OK stores by Jan 2026, cohorts from Q4 2025 onward are de facto AZ/NV-only (TX closures began Sep 2025, completed Jan 2026). Earlier cohorts include TX/OK noise. These are flagged below. For true city-level retention (Phoenix vs. Vegas), you'd need POS or loyalty data from the company's data room.
Vela Panel — Quarterly Retention Curve
Weighted Avg (all cohorts): Q1 36.4% → Q4 21.3% → Q8 16.8%
■ AZ/NV-only cohorts (Q4 2025+): Q1 retention 24.6%–17.3%
Orion Panel — Quarterly Retention Curve
Weighted Avg (all cohorts): Q1 41.0% → Q4 26.3% → Q8 22.4%
■ AZ/NV-only cohorts (Q4 2025+): Q1 retention 27.9%–23.2%
Retention is deteriorating — but how much is geographic noise? The national weighted average shows Q1 retention falling from a 43.5% peak (Q2 2023) to 17.3% (Q1 2026). However, pre-Q4 2025 cohorts include TX and OK stores that were ultimately closed as underperformers — those markets likely dragged retention down. The AZ/NV-only signal (Q4 2025–Q1 2026) shows Q1 retention at 24.6%–27.9% on Orion, which is weaker than 2022–2023 peaks but still above Chipotle and sweetgreen nationally. The key unknown: is AZ/NV retention stabilizing at these levels (healthy for a mature footprint) or still declining (structural issue)?
Vela — Cohort Size & Q1 Retention Trend
| Cohort | Geography | Members | Q1 Ret% | Q2 Ret% | Q4 Ret% | Q8 Ret% |
|---|
| Q2 2022 | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 716 | 39.9% | 28.4% | 24.2% | 22.2% |
| Q1 2023 | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 795 | 41.5% | 31.8% | 24.9% | 19.2% |
| Q2 2023 (Peak) | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 863 | 43.5% | 31.4% | 29.8% | 20.4% |
| Q4 2023 | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 729 | 33.5% | 27.4% | 22.1% | 15.4% |
| Q2 2024 | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 799 | 37.7% | 25.4% | 20.0% | 3.3% |
| Q4 2024 | AZ + TX + OK + NV | 521 | 28.4% | 19.2% | 12.3% | — |
|
| Q4 2025 🏜️ | AZ + NV only | 240 | 24.6% | 8.8% | — | — |
| Q1 2026 🏜️ | AZ + NV only | 179 | 17.3% | — | — | — |
🏜️ = Post-closure cohorts (AZ/NV only). Earlier cohorts include TX/OK stores that were later closed as underperformers.
Earnest Vela Panel · Card-spend data (~60% credit)
Skews middle-income, prime working age. The customer base indexes toward $40K–$150K+ household income (79% of classified spend), with 29% from $150K+ households — suggesting a suburban professional customer. Age skews 25–44 (46% of classified spend), which is the core "health-conscious convenience" demo. Only 6% from 18–24, suggesting limited Gen Z traction vs. peers like Sweetgreen.
Key events from public sources and market intelligence
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|
| 2013 | Founded in Gilbert, AZ by Tony & Roushan Christofellis | Drive-thru only, ~750 sq ft model, vertical integration |
| 2021 | Founders sell to Volt Investment Holdings (PE) | PE ownership begins; founders later criticize quality declines |
| Mar 2022 | Charlie Morrison (ex-Wingstop CEO) joins as CEO | Rapid expansion era begins — TX, OK, NV entry |
| Jun 2023 | Reaches 100 stores across 4 states | 3x store count since 2021 PE acquisition |
| Jan 2024 | ~135 locations; expanded commissary in Garland, TX | TX kitchen designed to serve up to 500 locations |
| Apr 2024 | $200M investment at $1B valuation (JPM restaurant team intel) | Significant capital injection; valuation ~7.5x LTM card rev |
| Late 2024 | 146 stores — peak footprint | Opening ~1 store/week; announced CA, KS, AR expansion |
| Apr 2025 | Mike Tattersfield (ex-Krispy Kreme CEO) replaces Morrison | New leadership signals strategic pivot |
| Sep 2025 | Closes 41 stores in TX and OK | "Disciplined growth" — exits Houston, Austin, San Antonio |
| Jan 2026 | Closes remaining 32 TX/OK stores; HQ moves back to AZ | Complete TX/OK exit, ~600 employees impacted. 70 stores remain (AZ + NV only). TX commissary closed. |
Automated signal scoring as of Apr 2026
Category Performance — Comp Benchmarking
Card transaction revenue (Salad & Go) · Earnest panel trailing 3 months (all)
| Company | Card Rev | Panel Sales (Vela) | Sales Δ YoY | Shoppers (Vela) | Shopper Δ YoY |
|---|
| Salad and Go | $134M LTM | $304K |
— | 10,443 | — |
| Cava Grill | — | $2.75M |
+13.5% | 72,694 | +9.1% |
| sweetgreen | — | $1.13M |
-9.2% | 23,572 | -7.8% |
| Chipotle | — | $24.3M |
+1.8% | 506,898 | -0.4% |
| In-N-Out Burger | — | $10.7M |
— | 274,669 | — |
S&G is the only comp declining on Earnest's Orion panel: -22.1% sales YoY / -27.7% shoppers YoY vs. Cava at +16.8% / +15.0%. Sweetgreen is also negative but much less so.
Cultural Momentum — Mixed
| Instagram | 94,722 | +20.9% |
| Web Traffic | 181K/mo | -75.4% |
| LinkedIn | 25,671 | +4.1% |
| Facebook | 142,000 | -1.0% |
| Headcount | 834 | +4.9% |
| Funding | $0 raised (Volt PE-owned) |
Earnest weighted average quarterly retention · Salad & Go vs. Sweetgreen vs. Chipotle
Vela Panel — Wtd Avg Retention by Quarter
S&G starts strongest (Q1: 36.4% vs. SG 24.9%, CMG 21.1%) but decays fastest — converges with peers by Q8.
Orion Panel — Wtd Avg Retention by Quarter
Chipotle's Orion retention is remarkably flat (28–32% through Q12). S&G starts higher but drops well below CMG by Q6. Sweetgreen trails both panels.
S&G has the highest initial stickiness but the steepest decay. On Vela, S&G's Q1 retention (36.4%) leads Sweetgreen by 12pp and Chipotle by 15pp — customers love the first experience. But by Q8, S&G (16.8%) has nearly converged with Chipotle (14.6%) and Sweetgreen (12.5%). On Orion (debit-heavy panel), Chipotle's retention is far stickier long-term (28% at Q8 vs S&G's 22%), likely reflecting habitual frequency at a lower price point. The takeaway: S&G converts trial well but struggles to build the repeat habit that Chipotle owns.
Earnest Vela Panel · In-store transactions · State-level data as Phoenix metro proxy
Arizona — Monthly Transactions & Unique Shoppers
AZ transactions peaked at ~31K/mo (Jun 2023) and have declined to ~19K/mo (Feb 2026) — a 37% drop. Unique shoppers fell from 12.5K to 8.7K. The decline accelerated in H2 2025.
Arizona — Avg Ticket & Visit Frequency
AOV has risen steadily from $10.16 → $13.37 (+32%) — likely price increases offsetting traffic loss. Visit frequency (txns/shopper) has drifted down from 2.7x → 2.2x, suggesting less habitual behavior.
Arizona — Avg Ticket Comparison
S&G's $10.81 avg ticket is 38–47% below fast casual peers — the value positioning is clear and differentiated.
Arizona — Panel Sales & Transactions
| Brand | Panel Sales | Txns | Avg Ticket | Months |
|---|
| Salad & Go | $5.84M | 540K | $10.81 | 71 |
| Chipotle | $13.29M | 761K | $17.47 | 71 |
| Panera Bread | $7.53M | 388K | $19.40 | 71 |
| Cava | $0.48M | 24K | $20.42 | 52 |
| Sweetgreen | $0.009M | 347 | $24.55 | 11 |
S&G is the #1 healthy fast casual in AZ by transaction volume — 71% more txns than Panera in the state. Sweetgreen barely present (11 months, 347 txns).
Earnest Vela Panel · In-store transactions · State-level data as Las Vegas metro proxy
Nevada — Monthly Transactions & Unique Shoppers
NV entered Jan 2023 from zero and ramped to ~1,300 txns/mo and ~650 shoppers by mid-2025. Growth has plateaued — Feb 2026 looks flat to Jun 2025 levels. No acceleration despite TX/OK exit refocusing resources.
Nevada — Avg Ticket & Visit Frequency
NV AOV ($14.51) is 8% above AZ ($13.37) as of Feb 2026. Visit frequency has ramped from near-zero to 2.1x — close to AZ's 2.2x, suggesting similar habitual patterns are forming for the NV customer base.
Nevada — Avg Ticket Comparison
S&G's NV ticket ($13.07) is 21% higher than AZ ($10.81) — either higher menu pricing or different product mix in Las Vegas.
Nevada — Panel Sales & Transactions
| Brand | Panel Sales | Txns | Avg Ticket | Months |
|---|
| Salad & Go | $145K | 11.1K | $13.07 | 39 |
| Chipotle | $4.11M | 229K | $17.92 | 71 |
S&G is a fraction of Chipotle in NV — 3.5% of CMG's sales, 4.8% of txns. Neither Sweetgreen, Cava, nor Panera have meaningful NV Earnest panel data. The Las Vegas market is effectively a two-horse race between S&G and the incumbent QSR chains.
Phoenix vs. Las Vegas — the story in two numbers. In AZ, S&G has 540K panel transactions at $10.81 avg ticket over 71 months — a mature, high-frequency, value-driven customer base. In NV, it's 11K transactions at $13.07 over 39 months — still nascent. The higher NV ticket is notable (could signal pricing power or tourist mix), but transaction volume per month is ~285 in NV vs ~7,600 in AZ — a 27x gap. S&G's competitive moat in AZ is real (no Sweetgreen, minimal Cava); in NV, Chipotle dwarfs it with 20x the transactions.